So Maybe It Wasn’t an April Fools’ Post?

Talk about being out in front of a story!

Early April 1, before I went to the Westminster Justice Center for a day of Jury Duty (details later this week), we put up our most popular post yet, “Major Housing Breakthrough Near?”

“It looks like our leaders may finally be setting aside their egos and personal agendas to work together for the common good,” we wrote two days ago.

“Behind-the-scenes discussions between Congressional leaders and the Bush administration may be about to bear fruit. And that fruit would be a pragmatic Housing Relief Act of 2008 which combines the best ideas from partisans of all stripes to provide both immediate relief and long term reform.”

So guess what’s the top story on Los Angeles Times‘ website this morning? “Senate advances mortgage relief plan.”

Here are the first two paragraphs of today’s Times’ article:

WASHINGTON — Senate Democratic and Republican leaders reached agreement Wednesday on a multibillion-dollar package to address rampant foreclosures and other problems stemming from what may be the worst housing slump since the Great Depression.

The compromise measure, placed on a fast track by the election-year desire to mollify voters, could be approved by the Senate as early as this week. It would be the first significant intervention by federal lawmakers to aid victims of the mortgage crisis.

Looks like you heard it here first!

Now, we’re pleased with our reputation for honesty. Really (see Redfin’s post, “A Realtor We Can Trust“). So we’ll also have to disclose that we got a couple of “minor” details wrong near the end of our April 1 prophetic post.

Like Congress eliminating earmarks and passing a line-item veto and Bush cutting back on Iraq spending to help fund the bill. And the AARP agreeing to support a one year suspension of social security’s cost of living increase. And McCain picking Obama as his running mate in the midst of all the bipartisan unity.

But it was posted on April 1.

By that we mean, it took a couple of days for all the details to come out. Right?

Shoot, our first report on a pending bipartisan breakthrough on housing was posted on March 31 (“Pragmatic White House Ready to Help Out?“).

“We think it could be a major step in the right direction–or a major disaster. As always, “the devil is in the details.” We just hope & pray that our employees in Washington (yup–we pay their salaries!) will finally put special interests, dogma, and party politics aside long enough to work for the common good, ” we wrote back then.

Who knows, maybe they were listening in Washington.

So maybe that post coming out on April 1 was just a coincidence? What are we going to do if we get some unbelievable, hot info on April 1? Sit on it until April 2, and let the big boys get ahead of us?

In any case, the devil is still going to be in the details, which range from federal mortgage relief bonds to tax breaks for homeowners, builders, and people who buy and occupy foreclosures.

There’s still time for partisanship to kill the bill, with hearings in the house scheduled for next week. Wouldn’t it be nice if our representatives will use that time to make the bill better for the nation as a whole, rather than to grandstand or advance partisan interests.

Otherwise, the joke might just be on us.

Only we wouldn’t be laughing.

Major Housing Breakthrough Near?

Disclosure (added 4/2/08) : To fully understand this post, you need to read through to the end. But it’s best to resist the urge to scroll down there now. Begin at the beginning, but if you decide not to read it all, then scroll down to the disclosure near the end before you leave this post.

“Enjoy:”

Sometimes you just get lucky. Or “blessed,” as my mother says.

Maybe this time we all did.

In following up on yesterday’s post, “Pragmatic White House Ready to Help Out?” we stumbled across what could portend, at long last, really good news for the housing and credit markets.

It looks like our leaders may finally be setting aside their egos and personal agendas to work together for the common good.

Behind-the-scenes discussions between Congressional leaders and the Bush administration may be about to bear fruit. And that fruit would be a pragmatic Housing Relief Act of 2008 which combines the best ideas from partisans of all stripes to provide both immediate relief and long term reform.

The comments off the record are almost unbelievable: “The collapse of the American housing and lending markets is an impending crisis that compels us to lay aside partisan differences and work together,” one Senate leader has discovered. “Ultimately, we’re all in the same boat, and if it sinks, we all drown!” she continued.

“We need to recognize that we are all on the same team,” according to a key administration figure. “We need to stop acting like the Shaq and Kobe Lakers and start acting like this year’s UCLA Bruins. You don’t see Collison and Love fighting for the ball!”

The details are still being finalized, but they involve major concessions and some unique innovations from both sides of the aisle.

Both sides apparently understand that runaway federal spending must be controlled. “We can’t borrow our way out of a borrowing crisis,” as one Democrat put it. “The government can’t continue unfettered spending. No more blank checks–not even for Iraq,” said an administration spokesperson.

Amazingly, Democrats have agreed to end Congressional earmarks and authorize a Presidential line-item veto. In return, Republicans are offering deferred automatic increases in some corporate and individual taxes when deficit targets are exceeded.

And the politicians seem to be succeeding in persuading their allied special interest groups to join the bipartisan parade to national unity for the common good!

The AARP has agreed to back an automatic one year suspension of the annual Social Security cost of living increase when budget targets are exceeded by 10% or more. “This will unite our Seniors to control runaway spending.” Meanwhile, the pharmaceutical industry has agreed to back drug imports from Canada. “Competition is the American way,” their spokesperson told us off the record.

Even the presidential candidates seem ready to climb aboard this “Friendship Train.” “There are things more important than me being elected President,” Hillary Clinton is said to have remarked. Talks are underway between the three camps for a “national unity ticket” with Obama running as McCain’s Vice President.

We know. “Wait just a minute!” you’re thinking.

OK, we don’t really expect to see a McCain/Obama ticket this fall–but we really don’t see why our leaders can’t work together a whole lot more and fight a whole lot less. After all, we’re the ones who pay their salaries!

As we said on our “history lesson” on the mortgage crisis (“How We Got Into This Mess”), stupidity and greed got us into this mess. And selfishness, partisan fighting, and greed sure won’t get us out of it!

Maybe you think we’re the April fools for suggesting that those in power could learn to work together for the good of the nation.

But we think they are the greater fools if they don’t.

And “we, the people” may be the greatest fools if we don’t start insisting they need to begin now, and reinforcing our words by our own unselfish deeds.

Time to lead by example.

“If we don’t hang together, we’ll all hang separately!”

–Benjamin Franklin

“I dream of things that never were, and say, ‘Why not?'”

–J.F.K.

 

Disclosure # 2: If you briefly scanned this article, or are reading it on or after April 2, make sure you noticed the day it was originally posted.

Then check out “So Maybe It Wasn’t an April Fools Post” to see how much of this is coming to pass, and what we think about it.

Now you may want to scan the postscript to see what we do on “normal” days. (As if there have been any “normal” real estate days in this millennium!)

Postscript: For several reasons we’ve gotten a lot of new visitors today. The above post is sort of a once a year thing, if you get our drift.

What we normally try to do here is to give you our “front line” perspective on what we see taking place in the market. We also try to lend a historical perspective that comes from Dave’s over 30 years involvement in real estate.

Here are a few of our more typical posts:

“How We Got into this Mess:” Our summary of events and human foibles that led to the current mortgage and real estate melt-down.

“How Low Will Prices Go? ” We wrote this last November, & the events since then have pretty much borne out what we said, but it’s probably not the answer you’re expecting.

“Top 5 Ways NOT to Pick a Listing Agent” The most common reasons sellers end up with the wrong agent. Reason #1 is a technique that works for the agent almost every time, if he decides to use it.

“How to Sell Your So Cal Home for Top Dollar in 30 Days:” A course we’ve been teaching for about 20 years, adapted to today’s market, buyers, and technology.

“What to Do When Nobody Knows What’s Next:” Our thoughts on balancing market timing with real life priorities in a turbulent market.

“So Cal’s Real Estate Cycles:” A new post that help you make your own predictions about what’s likely to happen next in So Cal Real Estate. The first in our new “Real Estate 101” Series, along with “Gentlemen, This Is A Football.“

We also think you might find our direct link to the So Cal M.L.S. useful, located near the top of the column to the right (a fair amount of scrolling at this point). For tips on how to get the most out of your search, check out “A Better Way to Search for Home Listings“

We’re pretty new to this blogging thing, and really appreciate your thoughts and comments, even requests for input. Blair and I both share backgrounds in Education (even Masters’ Degrees, mine being from the school that’s been to the Final 4 3 years in a row), and we consider this an electronic extension of the educating & prognosticating we’ve done for years with our clients, via Newsletters, and through classes.