The price bottom for Southern California home may be getting closer!

July 26, 2008: Let’s start off by reiterating that this is risky business. There are lots of variables that could change in the months ahead, from interest rates to employment to the international scene. That’s why we continue to insist that nobody can predict the bottom with absolute certainty, as Freddie Mac’s chief economist Frank Northaft told us last fall. (See “How low will prices go?“)

Be that as it may, everybody wants to take their best guess at what’s coming next, and recent developments are making us think it may be time to update our projections.

The Housing Relief Bill

A big reason for our increasing optimism is President Bush’s pragmatic decision this week to accept $3.9 billion for cities to buy up and fix foreclosed properties as a trade-off for federal guarantees for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which should calm both the stock market and stabilize lending.

Although the additional deficit spending the bill may create will put some more upward pressure on interest rates, we do think it will go a long ways to reducing the glut of foreclosures. On the whole it seems to be a surprisingly good example of well-crafted, bipartisan legislation.

Besides the money to buy up foreclosures, other features in the bill that we like include:

1. A permanent increase in loan limits for Fannie, Freddie, and FHA to $625,000 in the highest cost areas like much of Southern California.

2. A tax credit of up to $7,500 for first time buyers who close escrow between 4/9/08 and 7/1/09. (We think this will increase demand, and recommend first time buyers contact us now so we can set them up with a personalized “web portal” which allows them to search, save, and categorize properties on the SoCal Multiple Listing Service. 562.822.SOLD.)

3. $11 billion in tax free municipal bond authority for states to set up low interest loans to first time buyers.

4. It tightens regulations to avoid future repeats of the recent mortgage meltdown.

5. Making FHA mortgages more available, especially for “work outs” of over encumbered (“upside down”) borrowers who qualify and whose lenders will participate by writing down the loan to 90% of the home’s current market value (details in the article below).

6. The complex but intriguing arrangement that encourages loan workouts instead of foreclosures or “short sales.” The lender reduces the loan amount to 10% below current market value in exchange for getting the loan off their books. The borrower agrees to share that 10% and future equity with the taxpayers. And we the taxpayers (also known as the government) guarantee the new loan through FHA, provided the buyer can qualify.

The total revised package is expected to sail through the Senate and Bush has now promised to sign it. While dangers of inflation and unemployment still threaten, we think the housing bill will have a more positive impact than we originally thought. Combine that with the fact that the market seems to be finding a bottom in terms of price, and we’re hopeful the positives will outweigh or at least neutralize the negatives of the normal summer slowdown, foreclosures, and shaky employment.

With that in mind, we’re now revising our projections as follows:

Our Current Best “Guestimate”

40% chance: Bottom sometime between now and the end of winter:

We think the limited time offer of $7,000 tax credits for first time buyers will provide a significant stimulus to a market where we’re already seeing multiple competing offers on well-priced bank REOs. At the same time, cities will begin bidding for some foreclosures, and others will see favorable workouts with the lenders which the bill makes possible.

Some of the bills provisions don’t kick in until October, but the tax relief is retroactive. We think the bottom will most likely coincide closely with our normal seasonal cycle, which bottoms in December or January. (We’re talking about escrows that open in December or January, which would close in February or March be reported by DataQuick a couple weeks later. See “Predictions 101: Our 2 market cycles” and “Two big problems with DataQuick’s monthly median price reports.“) However, it’s possible that the bottom may actually come earlier.

Of course, nobody will know for sure it’s a bottom until prices start rising in the months following. Then we’ll be wondering if it’s a false bottom through the following winter.

Which So Cal County will bottom first? All real estate is local, and we think Southern California’s Coastal Plane will hit the bottom first, followed by the desert and Inland Empire areas possibly a year later. This is due to the impact of gas prices on outlying areas plus overbuilding and more foreclosures there. Of the larger So Cal counties, we expect Orange County home prices to bottom first because it’s the most built-out and has the lowest percentage of starter homes. We expect either Los Angeles or San Diego County home prices to hit bottom next, followed by Riverside and San Bernardino Counties.

Of the smaller counties, Santa Barbara looks like it’s already bottomed, with June foreclosures there hitting a 14 month low. Ventura County homes may be nearing a price bottom, while the smaller inland counties are largely in the same boat as the Inland Empire.

The other 60%: There are at least three challenges to a bottom this winter:

1. Inflation pushing interest rates up and reducing affordability.
2. The economic slowdown that we seem to be entering, with major job losses in automotive, construction, finance and real estate.
3. The continuing onslaught of foreclosures and resulting REOs.

40% chance: Bottom next winter. If the economy stabilizes and foreclosures slow down by year’s end, we could hit a bottom this winter. This is still the most common pick by most economists–recovery sometime in 2010, and has been consistently for the past year. We think the recent sharp decline in prices may speed things up. What would help even more would be a resumption of safe oil drilling offshore and in Alaska, with an excess profits tax being used to spur energy alternatives industries.

Again, we’re talking about the Coastal Plane areas of L.A. Orange and possibly San Diego Counties, with the Inland Empire and desert regions bottoming sometime in the following 14 months.

20% chance: Bottom later than next winter. Either a lengthy recession, or a bottom late winter of 2010-2011.

What to Do?

We still think market timing shouldn’t be as important as your personal situation in making housing or maybe even investing decisions. (See “What to do when nobody knows what’s next.”)

Sellers: Act now or be prepared to wait–maybe several years.

Buyers: There’s a significant chance that what we’re seeing now is as low as prices are going to go. But we’re saying there’s an equal chance that the bottom won’t hit until a year from this winter. And we’re also saying nobody can know for sure.

If you’re in a position to buy, start looking now & if you see something that works for you, make an offer at a price you can afford. You can use the MLS links in the right hand column to directly access any MLS in Southern California.

As a minimum, buyers should start saving your down payment (new concept, I know–check out wikipedia or google it) and get your credit in order (another new concept for some of us, but necessary now.) Do your Christmas shopping & card writing now, & see how the economy’s doing in November–it may be time to start writing lowball offers. Or to wait another year.

Although predicting a 40% chance of a bottom in the next five months hardly echos NAR’s “buy now!” theme, it’s dramatically more optimistic than we were just a few weeks ago. Of course, new developments could reduce or encourage our optimism. Stay tuned, & we’ll keep giving you our best projections based on what we’re reading, what we’re seeing on the front lines, & our experience of over 30 years in this amazing, interesting, and unpredictable business.

What Would Really Help

The “Housing Bailout Bill” seems like a pretty good example of Congressional give-and-take for the common good. We think there are two logical but somewhat radical additional steps our politicians need to take now to protect our economy and our way of life:

1. Modest steps to federal deficit reduction, specifically, reducing “pork.” I’m thinking of wasteful spending to get Legislators re-elected, like Alaska’s famous “Bridge to Nowhere.” Passing a bill eliminating such Congressional “earmarks” and also giving the next president a line-item veto would be a very simple step in the right direction. I’d also favor a mandatory deficit reduction bill that would impose across-the-board spending cuts and tax increases if our politicians couldn’t come up with budgets that meet a long term schedule to reduce the federal deficit. Taxing our great grandkids is the ultimate in “taxation without representation,” which our forefathers rightly considered tyranny.

2. Reduce the trade deficit by allowing careful new drilling for oil, but with a catch. The U.S. is sitting on more untapped oil reserves than any country in the world. I say use the revenue from that oil to create the best clean, renewable energy industries in the world. Open up more areas for safe drilling but dramatically increasing leasing fees on federal lands. Then split the billions in increased federal revenue between federal deficit reduction and renewable energy innovations.

That would undoubtedly strengthen the dollar, stimulate the economy, reduce the trade deficit, and lead to a cleaner environment. In the case of Alaska’s Arctic refuge, drilling would sacrifice less than .01% of ANWR to actual exploration in return for a $137 – $327 billion reduction in our trade balance (see Wikipedia, “Artic Refuge drilling controversy.”) We can keep sending our the money to the Saudis, or keep it here and use it for high paying jobs, deficit reduction, and energy innovations. Seems like a no-brainer to me, but I am a Realtor. . . .

We welcome your questions or comments

Two Big Problems with DataQuick Median Prices

In about ten days, there will be much media noise as DataQuick releases their So Cal median price figures for March.

We expect sales will be up from February, but down from March ‘06. Some analysts will be surprised. Prices will be down from a year earlier, but not down nearly as much as expected from a month earlier. In fact, the median price for Orange County might actually be up slightly from February.

But it’s not really news. And it’s not even what you think it is.

It’s not news because they’ll be reporting what took place back in January and early February, when those homes that closed in March actually went into escrow, as we explained in “Market Predictions 101: Our Two Real Estate Cycles.” By the time “DataSlow” reports them, they’ll be almost 3 months old.

“DataSlow’s” median price numbers aren’t what you think because any average, median or mean (for you mathematicians), can be skewed by shifts between market segments, as was so clearly pointed in a recent statistical study by Zillow’s number-cruncher.

For example, let’s say DataQuick started reporting “median grocery prices” at your local Vons. In November, when lots of people are buying expensive items like turkeys, that median would go up. Now the prices of things might actually be down (at least in our hypothetical, if not in the real world right now. Turkey might be cheaper than it was a month earlier. But because more people were buying turkeys instead of hamburger, the median price would still go up.

Same thing in the real estate market. When there are more first time, low end, buyers the median goes down. When there are more high end buyers, it goes down.

That’s why through most of 2006 DataQuick’s median price kept moving up, even as prices in most neighborhoods were dropping. As subprime loans stated to dry up, activity was switching from the low end to the middle and higher prices. So the median average moved up, since more of the sales were in higher priced neighborhoods, even as the prices in those neighborhoods fell.

More recently, there’s been an increase in lower end sales as lenders foreclose on many subprime borrowers in starter homes, then quickly unload the property at whatever price the market will bear. Meanwhile, most high end homeowners moved up and put a substantial down payment into their home, so there are far fewer foreclosures and distressed sales in the higher neighborhoods. Instead, those homeowners for the most part have decided to just wait out the current down turn.

In 2006, DataQuick’s median price was going up while actual prices were dropping in most neighborhoods. Lately, DataQuick’s median has been dropping faster than actual prices in most neighborhoods. We believe the actual drop in So Cal home values from top to current bottom is about 25 – 30% (less in higher end areas, more in condos, starter areas, and areas with lots of new construction).

In our next post, which should be out soon, we’ll combine that last little nugget of information with our Bernanke post and our Predictions 101 post to update our own predictions.

In the meantime, your thoughts and questions are always welcome. If there isn’t a “Leave a Comment” box below, then click on the “0 comments” or “2 comments” comment-counter just below this paragraph on the right. Make up a “Name” or just use your first name, as that will be public. Your e-mail will remain entirely confidential, but we can use it for a confidential response if requested. Thanks for visiting!

Top 5 Ways Not to Pick A Listing Agent

Over 30 years of selling property has shown us that selecting the right agent may be the single most important step to a successful sale or purchase.

Unfortunately, experience also has shown us that most sellers pick their agents for the wrong reasons, and they pay a huge price for that mistake.

Yesterday, we listed 5 of the most common mistakes sellers make in choosing an agent. Today we’ll identify the top 5, starting with one we’ve seen a lot of in the last two years, picking their agent based on:

5. Past performance as a buyers’ agent, in an easier market, or in another area. These might be good reasons to consider an agent, but they don’t prove anything about selling your property in today’s market. We could give dozens of examples from our experiences, but we’ll settle for just one, from baseball:

Just because Tim Salmon played great outfield for the Angels three years ago doesn’t mean he can play shortstop for them today. Let alone Center for the Lakers. Get the picture?

4. “She works my neighborhood.” This is called “farming,” and we do it ourselves. It’s a good way to get to know a neighborhood over time. But the number of notepads left on your porch or postcards mailed to your home proves neither competence nor integrity.

Until the agent’s been “farming” your neighborhood for at least four years, it proves nothing. In this market, you’d need to go back 17 years to get to the last major downturn!

Even with 17 years experience, you’d still want to investigate track record, and speak with sellers who’ve worked with him or her. The fliers or postcards may only tell half the story.

“Neighborhood specialists,” or “listing farmers” are like preachers, car salesmen, or Realtors as a whole. Some are ethical, competent, and diligent, but many others are not.

3. Lots of sales. This could be good or bad, but it raises a red flag. Most high volume agents operate with what they euphemistically call a “team,” which can also be good or bad.

We have a team–Dave, Blair, a transaction coordinator who is shared with several other agents, and a number of affiliates from escrow officer to termite inspector who are the best we can find. But other teams consist of several licensed and unlicensed assistants who pretty much do all the work for the named agent. You often never see the “superstar #1 agent” again after you’ve signed the listing.

At one seminar I recently heard the superstar speaker describe running into some poor seller of his in an airport. The superstar had “sold” his home a few months earlier, and he was actually bragging to us that this was the first time he’d ever actually met his “client.”

One more true story. A few years ago, the buyer for one of our listings was represented by one of those superstar top producers. When it came time for the walk-through I showed up to keep an eye on things. When the buyers came to the door (alone), I introduced myself as the listing agent. The buyer literally hugged me! “Oh my God! A real, licensed agent–not just an assistant!” she exclaimed. “We haven’t spoken with one since we signed the purchase contract seven weeks ago.”

Turns out, everything had been handled by unlicensed “assistants,” which were pretty much part-time kids. We’ve seen the same thing with sellers. They were “working” with top producing agents, but they rarely saw them, and weren’t happy campers.

2. Great listing packet or presentation. This doesn’t prove anything, either. Just because a politician’s a great campaigner with good commercials doesn’t mean he or she will make a good president or governor. It probably just means they bought a good listing presentation software package. In fact, most agents know they can easily get any listing if they dress nice, are friendly, have a persuasive presentation and, most important if he or she . . .

1. Tells you what you want to hear. Works every time, and most agents know it. There are even terms for it in the business. When an agent tells you what you want to hear about price, it’s called “buying the listing.” Happens all the time–then the listing sits for months while the agent tries to get a price reduction. Worked in ’04’s up market, but not today!

Sellers have words for it, too. “Great rapport!” “We felt so good about her!” “We just really clicked!” “She was so bubbly!”

It’s kind of like interviewing three doctors about your medical condition, then going with the one who tells you every thing’s fine. Tempting, but not real smart. Better to go with the best doctor, regardless of whether you like with his diagnosis or not.

Telling you what you want to hear (instead of the truth) is amazingly effective. It appeals to the sellers’ pride as well as to their wishful thinking. Kind of like flattering them while promising to make their dreams come true. Not that different from how most politicians operate, and you know how good they are at keeping their promises.

If two people agree on everything, one of them is not necessary. If an agent agrees with you too much, they’re either lying or incompetent, or you don’t need an agent at all. It’s probably one of the first two.

You need an agent who knows and tells you the truth. I remember telling an older seller who was “interviewing” us that they really needed to remove the velvet flocked red wallpaper they loved. I knew they didn’t want to hear it, but it was the truth. A few days later I got the call. “Dave, we decided to go with Suzy Q. We just had such great rapport, and she really loved our decorating.” Guess I’m glad somebody did.

If you want to feel good, go find a friend. But if you want to sell your house for top dollar in any market, especially today, go find an honest, experienced, diligent agent who will tell you the truth.

In another day two, we’ll give you some tips on how to do that. In the meantime you can always post a question or give us a call. 562.822.7653.

Top 10 Ways Not to Pick A Listing Agent, Part I

Poor Mr. Williams. We just drove by his house & noticed the sign was down. Hadn’t sold. If he’d read this post 6 months ago, it could have saved him at least $50,000 and half a year of his life.

Unfortunately, Mr. Williams has lots of company. We’d say at least 90% of the today’s sellers today are making at least one of ten major mistakes in picking their agent.

These are mistakes people naturally tend to make–and virtually all agents are able to easily take advantage of those tendencies if they choose to. Because they’ve listed a whole lot more homes than you have!

Here’s our list of the most common wrong reasons to pick a listing agent. Read it and weep. We do.

10. Amazing gimmicks. Mr. Williams picked his agent because of his “This House Talks” sign. Uses an 800 number to capture leads & texts them right to the agent’s phone. Very impressive to demonstrate to a potential seller.

But a gimmick is just a tool, & it doesn’t sell the home any more than the latest lazer level makes an incompetent carpenter into an expert. Selling today takes expert pricing, staging, negotiating, and marketing, plus integrity, diligence, & experience. Not one or two flashy gimmicks. Just ask Mr. Williams.

9. Mr. Williams also liked the agent’s warm friendliness. Can’t say we blame him–we like the guy too. But he’s only been in the business a few years, has never seen a market like this before, and it shows:

Of the 27 listings Mr. Williams’ friendly agent has taken over the past 12 months, only 4 have actually sold. 16 have expired or been canceled without selling–4 expireds for every sold! We had zero actual expireds in the last 12 months, but quite a few closed sales. Gimmicks and friendliness alone just don’t cut it.

8. Never list with someone from work. Inherently bad decision. Today you need a full time agent who’s good enough to make his living from real estate sales alone. If you know her from work, she’s not full time, no matter what she claims. Blair and I were both part time once–the first two years of our career, when we were also quite inexperienced. We know a whole lot more now than we knew then! Never, ever, ever list with a coworker, unless you work in a real estate office!

7. Friend or family, especially one who “really needs” the listing (duh!).

I recently met a fellow whose Lakewood home had been on the market for five months without an offer.

“How’d you pick your agent? ” I asked.

“Friend of my wife.”

“Any idea how many homes she’s sold in this tract?”

“Not as many as you.”

Actually, that agent had never even listed a home in that tract before. In fact, I just checked the SoCalMLS data base, & she’s never listed or sold a home in the entire city of Lakewood. And she’s only sold a grand total of one listing in the past 12 months, anywhere! That home in Lakewood’s still on the market, but now it’s in foreclosure.

Blood lines, friendship, club or church membership, or having a kid on the same soccer team as yours has absolutely nothing to do with being a good agent. Before you even mention your situation with a friend or relative, do some research. (We’ll give some tips in a few days.) Otherwise, you may become “obligated” to list with an agent that isn’t right for you. It’s a great way to ruin a friendship or family relationship. And lose money.

6. Because of the office or franchise. You can’t tell a book or an agent by their jacket! Our 30 years of selling hundreds of homes has taught us that their are bad agents in virtually every office. And good ones in some. You’re never even going to see the broker, let alone any franchise employee.

Franchises are primarily created to help the broker recruit agents and secondarily to pool funds for generic TV and other old-media ads.

The office we work at is affiliated with one of the most successful franchises in California, but I don’t think we’ve ever once mentioned which franchise it is. You really have to search to even find it on our commercial website. That’s because it just isn’t that important. We’re the ones our clients see & must rely on.

Those are five of the top ten mistakes we’ve seen sellers make, but this post is getting too long.

For the top five wrong reasons to list, including one that most agents know will get them the listing almost every time, just click here.

Overcorrecting?

Sunday’s New York Times had an interesting article on“How a Bubble Stayed Under the Radar,” dealing with economic theory and herd mentality.

Basically, it said what any long term observer of either the real estate or stock markets must have already concluded: Market prices get too high near the end of most up cycles, and too low at the end of most down cycles.

I figured that out at least three cycles ago, when another Realtor mentioned the insane bidding up of home values in 1989 was typical of the last, overpricing gasps of a market about to collapse. I thought our market had peaked in 2004, which was obviously too early. Still, in 2005 I made my ill-fated effort to beat the market by exchanging for out of state property (see my recent post on out of state investing). It’s the same herd mentality that created bubbles from internet stocks to silver.

Ironically, as our southern California prices drop, people tend to forget the flip side of the same herd mentality: The lows become irrational as well. Which either will at some point create or is currently creating opportunites to “buy low.”

I don’t think anybody can know with certainty if that time of opportunity is now or yet future. Once we know for certain, it will have past, and the best bargains will be gone.

But I do know that thousands of homes are on the market for prices 20% to 40% below the highs of a few years back. And I do know that many sellers are willing to take far less than they’re asking. And interest rates are also quite low.

I also know that prices tend to go up in the first half of the year and down in the second. So it appears that this year’s great opportunity may be passing. December of 2009 may present even greater opportunities. Or not.

But at some point, this market will overcorrect. Maybe it already has.

Negative Indicators

A while back we discussed some of the unique positive indicators in the So Cal real estate market, & mentioned that we’d discuss some of the negative indicators shortly. Well, shortly wasn’t so short, as we enjoyed Christmas, but here’s our tardy continuation.

Before we go negative, however, we should point out we’re putting our last unsold listing into escrow this week. We think that may be a positive indicator of a nice spring coming, so not all the arrows are pointing down.

However, 3 huge problems do loom on the immediate horizon:

1. Foreclosures. Most of those crazy subprime loans will be “resetting” in the next 6 months. “Reset” is a polite term for “payments zooming,” in some cases doubling. The banks are doing some things t0 help, but most still predict a massive increase in an already high foreclosure rate. They may be wrong, but it still will be a drag on the market.

2. Economic slowdown, or worse. Real estate is generally considered a “leading” indicator, & it may resume that role in the current economic cycle. Most builders and tradespeople we talk too are in a huge slowdown which may well continue to ripple through the economy, as the recent Christmas selling season seems to indicate.

3. Problems getting loans. The lending market has over-reacted to the sub-prime insanity, now making financing harder for everyone, even “prime” borrowers.

For these reasons, most economists predict it will be 2 – 4 years before real estate is back to “normal,” whatever that is.

We can just about guarantee that the December & January median price figures from DataQuick for Southern California will show continuing declines, probably drastic. But those are sales that went into escrow in November and December–old news.

We wouldn’t be surprised to see at least price stabilization locally this spring, for reasons hinted at by our being “sold out” in the middle of winter!

We’ll go into that in more detail in a few days. In the mean time, have a safe and happy New Years’ Celebration. And if you know anybody who needs a couple of good L.A. & Orange County real estate agents, we’re sold out & ready to go to work! Give us a call at 562-822-7653 any time!