Update added 4/7: Lots has happened since we wrote this post about two weeks ago, but it hasn’t resulted in any major changes to our projections. We did, however, release an updated projections post over the weekend: “A Change in Our Projections?”
The roller-coaster ride continues with this morning’s news:
1. Nationwide February resale closing numbers from the National Association of Realtors mirror DataQuick’s So Cal Numbers from last week: Sales up, prices down.
Why the sales increase “caught economists by surprise” is completely beyond us. January closings were the lowest on record, homes that went into escrow during the Thanksgiving to Christmas slowdown in a terrible year. They had nowhere to go but up as we move into spring.
We’ve been predicting the increase since we saw sales picking up in our market in January, & we also think March will reflect an additional increase in sales and possibly at least some firming of prices, maybe increases.
You read it here first–which is our goal, bringing you Los Angeles and Orange County real estate news from the front lines– not the ivory towers! Click for Blomberg’s reporting of NAR’s data.
2. Bear Stearns’ bad loans apparently weren’t as bad as originally thought, since Morgan-Chase this morning quintupled their bid from $2 per share to $10. Maybe things aren’t as bad as they seem? (Click here for our take on how we got into this mortgage mess & on Bear Stearns’ culpability.)
3. Stocks are up. But so are foreclosures. (For some insights into buying foreclosures, click here for our initial “Foreclosure Tips” post.)
This is just more evidence to us that we were right when we said last November that this downturn was wildly unpedictable. But we also told you What to do When Nobody Knows What’s Next.
Sellers, you may also want to review our summary of our workshop on “How to Sell Your So Cal Home for Top Dollar in 30 Days.”
That said, if you’re still intent on market timing to the exclusion of all else (that is, you don’t have a life?) we continue to expect a window of opportunity for sellers for the next several months, followed by opportunities for buyers through this winter. We still thing there’s a significant chance (20%?) of a major price collapse of an additional 15 – 25% , but there’s also a possibility that the worst is behind us.
Sorry the picture isn’t clearer, but we’d rather tell you the truth than make something up. Feel free to post your comments, thoughts or questions, we try to respond to every one. Or call us if you want to talk further (562.822.7653).
Added 4/3: If you want to read excerpts from Ben Bernanke’s April 2 testimony to Congress about where he thinks we’re at and where we’re headed, check out “Bernanke Predicts Bottom Later this Year?!“
We even translated some of his remarks into English, for those of us who don’t speak economist. He pretty much agrees with us, except he’s a little more optimistic. But we think that’s part of his job. Being moderately optimistic, that is, not agreeing with us.
4/7: For our updated projections post, check out “A Change in Our Projections?
