Are new homes bottoming in Southern California?

Frequent readers know Blair & I have been candid about what we don’t know during this amazing real estate market cycle here in Southern California. (See “How low will prices go?“)

But today, as I was looking through the Orange County Register’s Friday new homes advertising section, it suddenly hit me:

Prices on most So Cal new construction have either already hit bottom, or will be hitting bottom between now and December 26.

So, if you’ve always wanted to live in a new home, I suggest you start doing your research now.

Why now?

Simple: Supply and demand. New home permits have been way down for over a year now. Most developers may be as addicted to building as a drug addict is to dope, but they aren’t crazy. And even if they are, their bankers aren’t. There just isn’t that much additional inventory coming onto the market.

In most segments, we’re in the final phases of a clearance sale, and the stores haven’t been ordering new inventory for some time. Essentially, they’re going of business–some permanently, others temporarily. And the “going out of business sale” is winding down.

Exactly which new construction?

In the developed areas of Orange, San Diego and Los Angeles Counties, the lower end of new construction will probably hit bottom first, as may also be the case in resales. That would include almost all starter homes, especially condo/townhomes/lofts and “C” neighborhood detached homes. As Lyon Homes reported today, the lower end homes are now the bulk of their sales, allowing them to sell out these tracts earlier.

In the outlying areas, it’s a bit trickier due to the impact of high commuting costs and economic problems from the building slowdown itself. The areas with shorter commutes will most likely bottom first. High end, move-up tracts may have further down to go as well. Do your homework and look for desperate builders or whole tracts that are now bank-owned.

What about resales?

The glut of bargain basement new homes needs to be cleared out to stabilize resales, so this would be a step in the right direction. There are two additional problems facing resale housing:

1. The glut of foreclosures and “short sales,” especially on the low end.
2. The lack of the normal buyers for move-up homes, because most owners of starter homes either already moved up during the boom or else have had their equity disappear during the plunge. For example, last weekend we held open a beautiful Los Alamitos five bedroom, three bath pool home. Over 50 people came through, and most of them fell in love with the home. Unfortunately, almost all of the potential buyers had another home they needed to sell first. In most cases, that home had been taken off the market because they couldn’t sell it at a price that they felt they needed to make the move, including one family that was making a lateral move back to California from Florida. (The first Florida summer will do that for you!) Same problem that Lyons is having with move-up homes. On the flip side, prices have been “stickier” on most move-up resales, due to both a lack of competition from foreclosures and the ability of their sellers to wait out the downturn.

For resales, we’re sticking for now with our latest projections (see”An optimistic update on our projections of a home price bottom“). In short, we think the odds are for a bottom either this coming winter or next, but it’s too close call as to which.

What to do?

• If you’ve got your heart set on a new home, start looking now and be ready to close before year’s end.
• If a resale will do, get your “ducks in a row” by figuring out what you’ll qualify for and what your home might sell for if you’re moving up, or if you’d be better off refinancing out your down payment now and renting it out. (You’d need to close escrow on it within 3 years of moving out or you lose your tax free $250,000/$500,000 exclusion of capital gains.) This winter should be good–prices have already dropped more than I’ve ever seen in my 28 years as a Realtor and broker. But prices might be better in winter of ‘09-’10.

We think the deciding factor should be your personal situation. For more, check out our classic post on “What to do when nobody knows what’s next.” Of course, we’ll try to answer any question you leave in the form of a comment below. You can also feel free to go to “About Us” and scroll to the last few lines to get our phone numbers, or simply put “contact me please” in the comment section below (click the word “comments” below if there’s no box to complete).

Times of great opportunity are ahead. For many new home buyers, they’ve already arrived, and quite possibly for resale buyers as well. Praying for wisdom might be a good place to start!

Fannie, Freddie, & IndyMac: What’s up, what’s down, & what to do

(7/12/08, 11 p.m.) I’ve been selling Los Angeles and Orange County real estate for 28 years. I’ve seen conforming loans at 18% in the early 80’s, S & L failures of the late 80’s and massive job losses in the early 90’s but I’ve never seen anything quite like the ongoing drama that’s unfolding before our eyes.

After working through the weekend, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury announced late Sunday a series of moves designed to show strong support for the two semi-private bulwarks of U.S. mortgages. (Details here.)

This is more of a reaction to the housing and mortgage mess than any real solution. They’re not stopping the bleeding–just trying to keep it from increasing at an even faster rate.

In the short run Sunday’s actions keep the collapse in housing values from accelerating even more. Over the longer term they may actually reduce interest rates, and actually slow the ongoing downward cycle.

How We Got To This Point:

In our humble opinion the current mortgage and housing mess was caused by a combination of:

1. Excessive stimulus by the Fed after 9/11 at a time when the housing prices appeared to be heading towards a correction. (Essentially, interest rates were dropped and housing was used to keep the economy from crashing, possibly a wise move in view of the circumstances.)
2. The Fed delaying too long in raising rates, further prolonging the boom.
3. Perversely, fixed mortgage rates staying low when the Fed finally began raising the overnight rates they control, because long-bond investors sensed a downturn would result from the Fed rate increases.
4. The creation of unique but poorly designed and highly risky “sub prime” loans further extending the bubble. 4. (For a more detailed explanation, see “How we got into this mess.”)

The end result was a nightmare combination of extremely overvalued homes that were 100% financed or refinanced to shakey borrowers. Did I mention that many of the loans were written at ridiculously low “teaser” interest rates, which are now doubling, tripling, or worse.

All bubbles eventually burst, but the longer they last the further they must fall. Many of these loans, however, were based on the false premise that “real estate always goes up.” When the market stopped moving up, millions of serial refinancers had no place to turn, and the foreclosure parade began.

Eventually, prices dropped so low that even “prime” borrowers who put 20% down found out that they were upside down, which is how even Fannie and Freddie’s best loans began defaulting.

How’s that? The typical cost of selling a home is around 8 – 12% of a home’s value. That includes fees, escrow or closing, commissions, title insurance, termite, repairs, and, in this market, points for the buyer. Even without negative amortization, a 20% down borrower can’t break even after just a 10% decline in value. We’ve now passed a 25% decline in many Southern California markets. That doesn’t mean a borrowers with a fixed loan and good credit will defalut. . . . until one of them loses their job, or they get divorced, or have to relocate. Then they can’t sell the home, so their options are dramatically reduced. (For some of the options they still have, see “Trouble making your mortgage payment? 7 ways to get back on track“)

So, the lower prices go, the more people get in trouble, and the lower prices go, and the more people get in trouble, and the lower prices go. . . .

All of which makes investors very nervous about mortgage backed securities. Which makes it harder to qualify for mortgages, and also makes them more expensive. And which also makes it hard for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to sell their mortgage-backed securities. Which makes mortgages even harder to get and even more expensive. All of which makes prices go even lower.

That’s the vicious downward spiral we’re now in. That’s why I’ve been screaming that we desperately need the Federal Mortgage Act (bailout bill) that the Senate finally passed on Friday. (See “Better than I thought: Taxpayer protections in the “bailout” bill.”)

What the government did over the weekend was to take steps to simply keep solvent Fannie and Freddie, the guarantors of up to 80% of the mortgages now being originated. (Most of the other 20% are backed by the FHA or VA, although some S & Ls still “portfolio” or keep some of the loans they originate, rather than selling them off via Fannie, Freddie or FHA.)

The fall of IndyMac Bank, the third largest bank failure in U.S. history (in terms of dollars, but probably not adjusted for inflation), added further emphasis to the need for help.

So What’s Next?

The strong activity from buyers this year into summer gives good evidence that, even with rising interest rates and hard-to-get loans, prices have corrected enough to bring back buyers. But the ongoing flood of foreclosures expected well into 2009 will eventually swamp the limited pool of buyers, especially as we move out of the peak buying season. (See “Predictions 101: Our 2 market cycles“)

The weekend’s federal actions will at least keep the mortgage pipeline open, but it doesn’t solve the underlying problems. The Foreclosure relief bill will probably be fast tracked, but it will only help a limited number of borrowers. It will put a dent in the problem, but it won’t even come close to solving it.

Ongoing job losses in housing, finance, construction, home furnishings combined with auto industry problems and the huge losses being absorbed by investors don’t bode well for the future either.

(If you’re a homeowner or investor and are starting to feel a little like the Biblical patriarch, Job, you might appreciate my Pastor’s thoughts on the topic. For me, it helps keep things in perspective.)

We’ve been predicting further declines through this winter and possibly for another year or two. But, as we’ve been saying since November (See “How low will prices go?“), there are so many variables in play that nobody can predict what’s ahead with certainty. (Were you expecting this spring’s dramatic gas price rise?)

Bottom line: today’s prices are great, but they may be going lower. Maybe a lot lower. But there’s no way to know it’s hit bottom in advance. Because nobody really knows what’s ahead.

So you want to know”What to do when nobody knows what’s next.” Well, we already wrote that post, and it’s just a click away.

Note to potential sellers: The market has not died yet, and we have been consistently selling our listings in under 30 days by a combination of aggressive marketing, preparation, staging and negotiating plus accurate pricing. No, they’re not foreclosures, either. For details, check out “How to sell your So Cal home for top dollar in 30 days.” It could be a long time before prices return to today’s levels.

Buyers Southern California prices are expected to drop over the next 5 months and possibly for a lot longer, but you should also consider your personal situation and potentially rising interest rates. One thing’s for sure, if you buy today you’ll be paying a lot less than you would have a year ago! In any case, now’s definitely the time to start saving a down payment & get your finances in order, so you’ll be ready when you decide the time is right. Don’t run out and overspend on a car because you’re not buying a home.

For years I’ve been advising buyers to buy in November or December, but almost nobody has the time then–which is why it’s a great market for buyers. (For more thoughts for buyers see “Time to buy?“)

What we think needs to be done

Here’s where I’m taking an unexpected turn. The root problem became abundantly clear as gas prices rose this spring.

Because of our huge trade deficit, the U.S. is essentially becoming a third world nation, watching while Arab shieks buy up everything from Rancho Santa Fe horse property to the Chrysler building. And our oil dollars finance Al Queda, Hamas, and Iran’s nuclear program!

Meanwhile, we’re sitting on more untapped petroleum reserves than any other nation on the planet. I say it’s time to carefully open up offshore and Alaskan areas to oil drilling, but with a difference. As I understand it, current law allows oil companies remove oil from federal lands for free. I’ll bet Iran & Saudi Arabia don’t do that!

So I say, charge oil companies fair market for the oil they remove from our lands, but split that money between paying down the federal deficit and developing renewable energy sources. Let’s make the U.S. the number one source of clean petroleum alternatives.

Can you imagine the number of good jobs that would create, and the stimulus to our economy?

That’s what I think–& we’re eager to hear your thoughts!

Chapman’s Affordability Study Predicts Another Double Digit Home Price Drop for Southern California

Just as the National Association of Realtors’ forecasts tend to be overly optimistic (see this morning’s post), Chapman University’s tend to be quite pessimistic. I think they’re still mad that Gary Watts made them look foolish several years in a row, or it could just be something inherent in their system.

Anyway, as part of their coming June “comprehensive forecast of key economic variables,” Chapman’s Economic Research Center today released their projection of Los Angeles County, Orange County, and Inland Empire housing prices based only on one variable, affordability.

To reach the historical average affordability rate, Chapman says L.A.County median home prices need to fall an additional 23.3% and Orange County by another 13.7%. The Inland Empire, which has had the more severe overbuilding and foreclosure rates, need “only” fall another 8.2% to reach Chapman’s magical median.

Now for the bad news:

“It is likely that home prices will decline even more . . . since corrections usually drop the affordability index below the historical mean.”

Their math assumes modest income increases and flat interest rates. Declining rates could significantly decrease the amount of “correction” needed, while more modest pay increases could offset at least some of that.

I think historical trends in L.A. and Orange Counties are skewed by many years of affordable land.  Today’s situation of being practically built out on the coastal plain should result in higher affordability rates, in our opinion.  That doesn’t totally invalidate Chapman’s conclusions–we’d just pick more modest numbers.  We’re also hopeful that continue declines in mortgage rates will increase affordability.

It seems to us that both Chapman University and Gary Watts are like broken clocks.  Gary’s stuck at sunrise:  He always thinks prices will keep going up.   Chapman’s stuck at midnight:  The worst is yet to come.  They’re both right once in each economic cycle, like a broken 24-hour clock that’s right once a day.

Still it’s one more thing to consider.  We think a 5% – 10% additional price drop will hopefully do it for the coastal plain at least.  (See “A Change in Our Projections“).

Like we keep saying, nobody knows for sure (See “How Low Will Prices Go?”).

For Chapman’s full report, including some nifty charts, in PDF form, click here.

And click here for “a little perspective” on our real estate woes, here for “a little more perspective,” here to find out “what to do when nobody knows what’s next,” or here to find out “how to sell your So Cal home for top dollar in 30 days.”

As for me, I think it’s time to get outside in this beautiful weather & go for a jog.

National Association of Realtors’ Economist Still Too Optimistic?

We got our April “Research Update” from NAR yesterday (“Existing Home Sales to Stabilize Before Upturn in Second Half of 2008“) . That seems too optimistic to us.

Maybe Lawrence Yun, their new Chief Economist, hasn’t heard about the annual cycle yet (See “Market Predictions 101:  Our 2 Real Estate Cycles“), because he thinks things will start picking up when they start slowing down in most years.

Here are the first three paragraphs of NAR’s press release:

Little change is expected in existing-home sales over the next few months, before improving notably during the second half of the year, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the market will come into clearer focus this summer.  “Existing home sales could start to show a sustained increase within a few months, unless there are some additional economic problems or excessive inflationary pressure,” he said.  “We’re looking for essentially stable sales in the near term, before higher mortgage loan limits translate into more sales in high-cost markets.  The wider access to affordable credit should increase sales activity notably this summer as pent-up demand begins to be met.”

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in February, slipped 1.9 percent to 84.6 from an upwardly revised reading of 86.2 in January, and was 21.4 percent lower than the February 2007 index of 107.6.  “The slip in pending home sales implies we’re not out of the woods yet, though an era of successive deep sales declines appears to be over,” Yun said.

We do see some signs of bottoming, but from where our office sits on the OC/LA County line off the 605 in Lakewood, we really can’t tell if it’s just a spring uptick on a longer downward trail.  We’re still sticking with our most recent forecast (see “A Change in Our Projections?“)

We think DataQuick’s numbers from yesterday only tend to confirm our perspective (“What DQs numbers mean“)

DataQuick’s March median numbers: What to expect & what it means

Update from David Emerson: We wrote the following post early 4/15, in anticipation of DataQuick’s release of their March closing statistics for all of Southern California, including L.A. & Orange Counties, Lakewood, Long Beach, Los Alamitos, and the surrounding area. As we predicted, DQ’s March numbers showed an increase in sales which was quite modest by seasonal standards, and also a modest firming in prices.

We’ll insert excerpts from today’s DQ report at appropriate points through the post below. We’ll indent them & put them in italics. We’re leaving our earlier projections and commentary unchanged, because it’s still applicable:

“DataSlow,” as we like to call them, should be out today with their March closing statistics for Southern California. Here’s our preview & interpretation. We’ll update this as needed once the numbers are out.

Data quick reports Southern California two statistics every week and every month: sales volume and median sales price.

It looks like both will be down from March 2007, which will probably get most of the attention. But the month over month figures should be more hopeful.

We expect sales volume to be up a tad from February,

[Here's what DQ reported:] A total of 12,808 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in March. That was up 18.8 percent from 10,777 the previous month but down 41.4 percent from 21,856 in March 2007.

and median prices to be pretty close to February’s numbers.

The median price paid for a Southland home was $385,000 last month, the lowest since $380,000 in April 2004. Last month’s median was down 5.6 percent from February’s $408,000, and down a record 23.8 percent from $505,000 in February 2007. That peak median of $505,000 was reached several times last spring and summer.

[Dave here. This is still a reduction in the rate of decline, and it was caused by some of the problems with median statistics, details below. When isolated by county, the stabilization is more apparent. For example, Orange County's March median of $506,000 was down less than 3% from February's OC DQ median of $520,000. More significantly, OC's $506k March median was actually up from DQs last 4 week OC reports, which both came in at $500,000. Pretty much what we predicted--but don't read too much into that, bulls (details to follow)

Now a word about what that would mean.

It's important to bear in mind what these numbers actually are. First, in terms of today's rapidly moving market, DQs numbers are ancient history. That's because Data Quick today will report Southern California real estate sales that closed escrow during March.

That means the purchase offer was most likely written 45-60 days earlier: Someplace between January 1 and February 14.

Second, DQ's price numbers are medians. If more homes are selling in stater neighborhoods, the median price will drop even if prices are rising. (For a more detailed discussion of the problems with DataQuick's numbers, see "Two big problems with DataQuick's median prices.")

The sharp and sudden drop of the Southland median price reflects a combination of factors, mainly depreciation, especially in areas hammered by foreclosures, and a big shift in the types of homes selling. Since last August, when the continuing credit crunch hit, sales have plunged for more expensive homes financed with "jumbo" mortgages, which until recently were defined as loans over $417,000.

Sales financed with these larger loans, which the credit crunch made more expensive and harder to get, accounted for just 15 percent of Southland sales last month, down from about 40 percent a year ago.

[This is the problem with medians. DQ explains it, but only in the ninth paragraph of their report.]

Even with their problems, however, DQs numbers can be useful. These should offer something for everyone, but some caution is in order.

Housing bears shouldn’t focus too much on the year over year numbers to the exclusion of some possible modest improvement from February to March.

Likewise, housing bulls should be wary of reading too much into what might just be a normal seasonal increase in activity and prices (see “Southern California’s 2 housing market cycles“).

Over the past 20 years Southland sales have risen by an average of 38 percent between February and March. Last month’s 18.1 percent increase from February was the lowest in DataQuick’s statistics, which go back to 1988.

We don’t think today’s DQ numbers will change our own position on what’s ahead (See “A change in our projections?” for our April 4 projection post, or our “classic” November post on this market, “How low will prices go?“)

DQs report is available here. You might also want to check out Peter Hong’s concise, well-written article on today’s DQ numbers.

For a little longer term perspective, you might want to click back to either of our last two posts, (“A little more perspective”) and (“A little perspective“).

A little perspective

Woke up this morning to one of those stories that makes you thankful for what you have. Even if it is going down in value.

Worth a read:

“Pride in A Paycheck”

There’s more to life than money. Way more.

Real Estate Bottom Near?-

Maybe it’s not going to get as bad as we’ve been thinking?

Seems like I woke up to nothing but good news today.

Let’s start in Tokyo, where this week Alan Greenspan, apparently fleeing the U.S. for his own protection, proclaimed that the housing bottom isn’t that far away.

The former Fed chairman told a banking conference there that he expects the drop in U.S. home prices will probably end early in 2009 as housing inventory is reduced.

Here’s the really good news (if you’re a homeowner, at least. Greenspan thinks “…it is very likely that home prices will stabilize well before that.”

Greenspan said that in spite of apparently taking off his rose colored glasses, because he also thinks that the damage from the subprime crisis won’t be fully apparent for months. He also called the current credit crisis the worst in 50 years.

A bottom this coming winter has been the most optimistic of our “most likely” scenarios. In fact, the ongoing increase in Southern California foreclosures had us thinking the bottom’s more likely at least two years off (see yesterday’s update to our most recent projections post).

We’re not saying we agree with Greenspan, who we think had a lot to do with getting us into this mess (see “How We Got Into This Mess” for details). But he does have an awful lot of experience, access to more data than I can imagine, and a lot more credibility than Gary Watts.

Then I go to check the O.C.Register’s Mathew Padilla’s “Mortgage Insider Blog” to discover he’s finding signs that the bottom might be behind us. Now that’s the most optimistic scenario possible!

He sites two specific “signs:”

1. “Our local superstar investment manager, Bill Gross of Pimco, has been buying mortgages.“
2. Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein said the credit crisis is “closer to the end than the beginning,” and that the U.s. economy “will be on a growth curve again” by the end of the year.

Again, we’ve got two credible sources, but sources who may well have their own agendas.

Meanwhile, the Senate passed their version of the “Foreclosure Prevention Act” by a lopsided 84 – 12 vote. On first pass, we think the bill, which will probably be modified significantly in the House, does some things well, others poorly, and others not at all.

Overall, we think it’s a step in the right direction, and we feel the bipartisan support is significant, as well as the fast action. Here’s a link to today’s L.A. Times‘ article on the bill.

But foreclosures are still on the rise.

Like we keep saying, nobody really knows what’s next.

But today things look a little brighter than they did yesterday.

Maybe.

P.S. For something more uplifting, you might want to check out our next post, “A little perspective.”

Fed’s Last Rate Drop Caused by Recession Worries

Apparently the majority of the Federal Reserve’s Directors were afraid things might get a lot worse when they approved last month’s 3/4% rate drop, according to minutes released today from that meeting.

Here’s the top of the AP’s report on it:

Worries about a deep recession–not a shallow one–drove Federal Reserve policymakers to slash interest rates again last month, according to minutes of their closed-door meeting.

Even as the Fed battled in almost unprecedented fashion to stem a widening credit and housing slump, some Fed members fretted over the possibility of a “prolonged and severe” business downturn.

It was in that environment that they voted–with two dissents–to cut this important interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point, to 2.25 percent.

That action capped the most aggressive Fed intervention in a quarter-century.

Some Fed policymakers thought that such a widening recession could not be ruled out given the further restriction of credit availability and “ongoing weakness in the housing market,” according to the meeting minutes that were made public Tuesday.

That doesn’t mean we will fall into a prolonged & severe recession. In fact, it means policy makers are doing all they can to prevent one. But it does mean that’s one possibility that must be considered, as we’ve been saying for months.

To us, it’s just more evidence that nobody really knows what’s going to happen next (See last Friday’s “A Change In Our Projections?“. Maybe “What to do when nobody knows what’s next“)

Newport Coast vs. Inland Empire

Got into a little “discussion” today on Jon Lansner’s O.C. Register Real Estate Blog about why prices are dropping faster inland than on the coast. Thought it might be worth repeating here.

Here’s the initial question, posed in a comment by “Jimmy:”

How bizzare. While you are all looking for a bottom in inland real estate, I am still waiting for a price decline in CdM (Corona del Mar). This is so unusual that it should be a real concern. You have to be concerned about making any real estate investment until someone explains why CdM and NB(Newport Beach) seem to be hanging on while some inland locations plummet.

Here’s our response:

There are at least 4 reasons the Coast & the I.E. are on different tracks:

1. Tons more new construction in the I.E. Unsold inventory, possible overbuilding, & lots more recent purchases near the peak being foreclosed. Plus lots more subprime home loans. Last time I checked, the I.E. offices of the firm I work for had hundreds of unsold REOs in their listing inventory.
2. Lots more equity near the coast. These are prime, move-up, destination neighborhoods. People buy there and stay put. And they generally put money down–lots of money–from the home they’re moving out of. CdM and NB ain’t exactly “starter” neighborhoods. And the folks who do start out there usually have a big chunk of change to put down anyway.
3. Supply and demand. There’s still dirt to build on in the I.E.
4. Gas prices. Not to mention traffic. Who wants to live on the 91 with gas this high & heading up?

There is a theory out there that a dropping tide will eventually lower all ships. I suspect that’s true, but if it does come don’t look for as big a percentage drop on the coast as inland.

Hope that helps.

I remember back during the last big slump, in 1994 when you could hardly give a home away in the inland parts of South Orange County. Bach then there was more new construction there–it was a bit like the Inland Empire was today, but South OC was a lot closer to being built out. South OC prices jumped dramatically during the last boom, and today they’re not down nearly as sharply as the I.E.

We’re still thinking prices throughout So Cal will probably be lower this November and December, but nobody knows for sure, as we keep saying.

The best time to buy is just before the bottom.

When REOs in the I.E. are selling for less than the cost of land, it may be a good time to buy, or at least to write some lowball offers. Auctions can be another thing (see “Foreclosure Tips“)

Jury Duty

July 12Note:  This post has been moved to our new location, SoCalRealEstateNews.com.  Click here for a direct link to the post, “Jury Duty.” Only the first few paragraphs of the post follow:

I used to try to avoid Jury Duty; now I figure it’s just part of being a good citizen. However, being self-employed, I try to limit the amount of days I have to put in.

It’s always an interesting experience. As a bonus, I usually take some things back that relate to real estate.

After getting up early to write our April Fool’s Post, I spent last Tuesday at OC’s “West Justice Center.” This time it confirmed some of my suspicions about the difference between lawyers and Realtors.

Shortly after checking in & donating my felt tip marker to the officer at the door, I was sent up to a courtroom to be in a jury pool with about a hundred of my new best friends.

After instructions from a bemused bailiff we were given our numbers & sworn in by the court clerk. Then we all rose so the judge could come in.

His honor told us this was a criminal case that would take 5-6 days of our lives if we ended up on the jury. I had figured a day or two was about all I could do, but it sounded like this judge wasn’t going to buy that. “Jury duty is like military service,” he said.  Guess he hadn’t heard that the military draft was abolished decades ago.  “Unless this would cause a life-altering hardship,” the judge continued, “you need to serve.” Wow–life altering!

Click here to see what happened when the judge examined me for service.